Right Sized Inventory
RSI FAQ · Question 05

How do you calculate the right amount of safety stock with uncertain demand?

RSI FAQ Question 05
05
Short answer

Use simulation to size safety stock by testing many demand and lead-time outcomes against your service-level goal.

Traditional formulas (like safety stock based on Normal distribution) assume demand is stable and predictable. In reality, demand is uncertain, which makes simulation the best way to size safety stock.

Traditional Formula Approach

Safety stock = (Service Factor) × (Standard Deviation of Demand) × (√Lead Time).

Works well in textbooks, often fails in the real world.

  • Run thousands of possible demand/lead time outcomes based on actual demand history.
  • Test different safety stock levels against actual service level goals.
  • Pick the level that balances cost vs. customer impact for each item/location combination.
Example

A parts distributor found that formula-based safety stock caused overstock of stable items and stockouts of slow movers. Simulation reallocated buffers, cutting working capital by 12% and improving fill rates.

Key takeaway

Don’t just calculate safety stock. Test it under uncertainty. Simulation is how you know if your safety stock is really right-sized.

Related The patented lead-time model Inventory Optimization Services

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